Europe is becoming the hotspot of electromobility: sales of battery electric cars and plug-in hybrids will rise by 44 per cent in 2019 compared to the previous year to more than 600,000 vehicles. This makes Europe's development stand out worldwide. In China, e-car sales rose by only 3 per cent to 1.2 million, while in the USA the market shrank by as much as 12 per cent compared to the previous year to a good 300,000 cars. A total of 2.3 million e-cars were sold worldwide in 2019, 9 per cent more than in 2018.
Thanks to the sustained momentum, Europe was able to increase its global market share to over a quarter; in 2019, e-cars accounted for 2.8 per cent of all new registrations. Norway, as the most mature e-car market in Europe, retains the lead not only in China but also in the McKinsey Electric Vehicle Index, which is used by management consultants McKinsey & Company to regularly measure the development of e-mobility in the 15 most important countries.
Only every fourth e-car sold is a plug-in hybrid
"China remains the largest market in the world, the supply of local Chinese products has increased significantly," says Nicolai Müller, senior partner in McKinsey's Cologne office. "However, demand in Europe has risen sharply. Further momentum can be expected - namely from the increasing range of products with which manufacturers are aiming to meet the CO2 limits". By 2021, manufacturers will have to bring over 2 million e-cars onto the market in order to avoid fines to the European Union.
With more than 110,000 e-cars sold in 2019, Germany is the third-largest market worldwide and the largest in Europe in absolute terms. With a market share of 2.8 per cent for e-cars, Germany is in line with the European average - with Norway with almost 45 per cent market share, Iceland (22 per cent) and the Netherlands (13 per cent) leading the world. The range of models is also particularly large in Europe: after China with almost 170 available electric car models, Germany already follows with over 80 models. Six other European countries follow in third to eighth place.
Tesla is extending its lead as the world's leading electric car manufacturer: in 2019, the company sold 368,000 vehicles - 300,000 of which alone were Model 3, by far the world's best-selling electric car. With BMW (133,000 e-vehicles sold) and VW (85,000), two German brands are in the top 10, with compact cars with a 44 per cent market share and SUVs (30 per cent) scoring particularly well with customers. In addition, the trend towards pure battery electric vehicles (BEV) is continuing: 74 per cent of all e-vehicles sold in 2019 were BEVs, while plug-in hybrids only achieved a 26 per cent market share.
"The manufacturers' model offensive is in full swing," says Patrick Schaufuss, a junior partner at McKinsey and author of the analysis. The industry has announced 600 new e-car models by 2024: Chinese carmakers are leading with 169 models, followed by Japan (145) and Germany (102). "The manufacturers' focus is on the medium and large vehicle segment," explains Schaufuss. The share of German manufacturers in global e-car production will rise from 18 per cent last year to 29 per cent in 2024. This means that with over 1.7 million e-vehicles produced, Germany could become the world market leader for electric cars as early as 2021 - just ahead of China.
Parallel to the model announcements, the manufacturers have also built up battery capacities. By 2025, up to 1000 GWh of production capacity is to be created, the majority of which will be in China (up to 610 GWh), Europe (up to 290 GWh) and the USA (150 GWh). As in the vehicle market, Europe is the most dynamic, with an annual growth rate of up to 47 per cent.
Since 2010, the Electric Vehicle Index developed by McKinsey has been examining at the country level, where the 15 most important nations for electric mobility stand in each case. The countries examined are China, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, India, Iceland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United States and the United Kingdom. The index examines the two important dimensions in the development of e-mobility, the market and the industry side.
On the market side, it analyzes, on the one hand, how large the market share of e-vehicles is in the overall market. On the other hand, incentives such as subsidies, the existing infrastructure and the available supply of e-vehicles are assessed. The industrial EVI examines how successful the respective automotive industry in the country is in the field of e-mobility. Factors such as the current and future share in the worldwide production of electric vehicles and important components such as electric motors and batteries are taken into account.
Source: McKinsey - press release dated 12.03.2020